Nasa has stated that the odds of the Earth being hit by an asteroid in 2036
have not been reduced, despite earlier reports.
The agency had appeared to support
calculations
by a German teenager that the odds of the Apophis asteroid hitting the Earth
had reduced from 1 in 45,000 to 1 in 450.
Schoolboy Nico Marquardt had calculated that if the asteroid hit a satellite
in 2029 it would be more likely to hit Earth on its return from the Sun in 2036.
"Nasa offices involved in near-Earth object research were not contacted and
have had no correspondence with a young German student who claims that the
Apophis impact probability is far higher than the current estimate," said the
Near-Earth Object Program Office at Nasa's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in
Pasadena.
"This student's conclusion is reportedly based on the possibility of a
collision with an artificial satellite during the asteroid's close approach in
April 2029.
"However, the asteroid will not pass near the main belt of geosynchronous
satellites in 2029, and the chance of a collision with a satellite is
exceedingly remote."
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